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MODELING POINTS TO A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SOYBEAN PRODUCTION DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGES

Published in 21/11/2024 - ISBN: 978-65-272-0843-3

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Paper Title
MODELING POINTS TO A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SOYBEAN PRODUCTION DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGES
Authors
  • Janaina da Silva Fortirer
  • Adriana Grandis
  • Carmen Palacios Jara
  • Débora Pagliuso
  • Leandro Francisco de Oliveira
  • Lauana Pereira De Oliveira
  • Eveline Queiroz de Pinho Tavares
  • Plínio Barbosa de Camargo
  • Eny Iochevet Segal Floh
  • Cibele Maria Russo Novelli
  • Marcos Buckeridge
Modality
Poster
Subject area
Systems Biology and Modeling
Publishing Date
21/11/2024
Country of Publishing
Brazil | Brasil
Language of Publishing
Inglês
Paper Page
https://www.even3.com.br/anais/xmeeting-2024/831863-modeling-points-to-a-significant-reduction-in-soybean-production-due-to-climate-changes
ISBN
978-65-272-0843-3
Keywords
Modeling, Climate change, Soybean, Grain production, Brazil
Summary
Temperature and drought are two emerging climatic risks to Brazil's soybean production, and these effects on production are determined by the scale of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels1. We modeled combined and separate impacts of high temperature [Temp], drought, and elevated CO2 [eCO2] on grain production. Experiments were performed [Temp] versus [eCO2] and [Drought] versus [eCO2] and the data obtained from the experiments were used as inputs for model evaluation encompassing soybean grain production responses. After investigating various statistical models, a generalized linear model (GLM) from the gamma family was suitably employed2. Soybean grain production loses 94% in high temperatures compared to ambient treatment. In addition, the combination of [eCO2+Temp], reduced the loss from 94% to 86%. Furthermore, drought treatment was reduced by 61% to ambient, and elevated CO2 mitigated the reduction to 50%. On the other hand, only [eCO2] treatment increased grain production by 97% when compared with ambient. Temperature and drought conditions greatly reduced grain production and when coupled to elevated atmospheric CO2 partially mitigates these losses yet does not eliminate them. Our simulations point to temperature plus drought and elevated CO2 reduced 26% in soybean grain production compared to ambient. These distinct interactions imply the importance of considering temperature and drought combined with elevated CO2 in modeling analysis. The modeling helps to understand the losses and gains in the main crops that are important in the direct economy of countries such as Brazil. As much as in soybeans, other regional crops must be modeled to understand their potential response to climate change.
Title of the Event
20º Congresso Brasileiro de Bioinformática: X-Meeting 2024
City of the Event
Salvador
Title of the Proceedings of the event
X-Meeting presentations
Name of the Publisher
Even3
Means of Dissemination
Meio Digital

How to cite

FORTIRER, Janaina da Silva et al.. MODELING POINTS TO A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SOYBEAN PRODUCTION DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGES.. In: X-Meeting presentations. Anais...Salvador(BA) Hotel Deville Prime, 2024. Available in: https//www.even3.com.br/anais/xmeeting-2024/831863-MODELING-POINTS-TO-A-SIGNIFICANT-REDUCTION-IN-SOYBEAN-PRODUCTION-DUE-TO-CLIMATE-CHANGES. Access in: 04/06/2025

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