RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE EXTREMES AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION IN CENTRAL-SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Gilvan de Jesus Souza; Aline Veronese da Silva; Ivette Luna

Todos os Trabalhos

Trabalho

DOI

10.29327/9786527226680.1449657

Título do Trabalho

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE EXTREMES AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION IN CENTRAL-SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Autores

Gilvan de Jesus Souza
Aline Veronese da Silva
Ivette Luna

Modalidade

IRSA - Congresso Mundial de Sociologia Rural (01/10/2025 a 20/01/2026)

Área temática

IRSA 14 - Global Crises and Socio-ecological Transitions in Rural Territories

Data de Publicação

06/08/2026

País da Publicação

Brasil

Idioma da Publicação

pt-BR

Página do Trabalho

https://www.even3.com.br/anais/sober-irsa2026/1449657-relationship-between-climate-extremes-and-soybean-production-in-central-southern-brazil

ISBN

978-65-272-2668-0

Palavras-Chave

soybean supply chain, climate extremes, socioecological transitions, rural territories, resilience

Resumo

Objective: This paper analyses how extreme weather events (EWEs) affect soybean production in Brazil, with particular emphasis on the Southern and Central-Western regions, addressing the gap in municipality-level evidence that jointly links extremes to production/productivity losses. Method: We integrate annual municipal production data (CONAB/IBGE) for 2000-2023 with INMET meteorological records, using climate variables through daily aggregation (precipitation totals; mean/max/min temperatures). Because station density is low relative to producing municipalities (1,539 with soybean records), we generate spatially representative daily climate series at municipal centroids via inverse distance weighting (IDW) using a 100 km representativeness radius and distance-decay power 2. We compute ETCCDI extreme indices (e.g., CDD, Rx5day, SDII; and temperature extremes/frost-related measures) and align their windows with phenological calendars; these indices are then converted into discrete EWE indicators (drought, heavy-rain/flood-prone episodes, heat waves, cold anomalies/frost risk) at the municipality stage year level. Finally, we estimate pruned, cross-validated classification trees to map EWE features to outcome classes derived from municipality-specific production/yield anomalies (no loss and loss), prioritising interpretability and threshold discovery. Conclusions: The results indicate regional asymmetries: the Central-West shows greater yield stability, while the South exhibits higher volatility and sharper downturns, consistent with uneven socioecological vulnerability. The proposed pipeline delivers transparent, rule-based climate loss thresholds that can support territorially targeted adaptation and risk governance under compounding global crises.

Título do Evento: 16th World Congress of Rural Sociology and 64th Congress of the Brazilian Society of Rural Economics, Management and Sociology
Cidade do Evento: Porto Alegre
Título dos Anais do Evento: Anais do 64º Congresso da SOBER e XVI Congresso Mundial de Sociologia Rural (IRSA)
Nome da Editora: Even3
Meio de Divulgação: Meio Digital
DOI

Como citar

SOUZA, Gilvan de Jesus; SILVA, Aline Veronese da; LUNA, Ivette. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE EXTREMES AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION IN CENTRAL-SOUTHERN BRAZIL.. In: Anais do 64º Congresso da SOBER e XVI Congresso Mundial de Sociologia Rural (IRSA). Anais...Porto Alegre(RS) UFRGS, 2026. Disponível em: https//www.even3.com.br/anais/sober-irsa2026/1449657-RELATIONSHIP-BETWEEN-CLIMATE-EXTREMES-AND-SOYBEAN-PRODUCTION-IN-CENTRAL-SOUTHERN-BRAZIL. Acesso em: 25/09/2026