EXPORT CONCENTRATION IN A MULTIPOLAR WORLD: AGRI-FOOD LOCK-IN AND BRICS+ GOVERNANCE IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Roberth Andres Villazon Montalvan; Rogério Goulart Júnior; Luiz Toresan

Todos os Trabalhos

Trabalho

DOI

10.29327/9786527226680.1442126

Título do Trabalho

EXPORT CONCENTRATION IN A MULTIPOLAR WORLD: AGRI-FOOD LOCK-IN AND BRICS+ GOVERNANCE IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Autores

Roberth Andres Villazon Montalvan
Rogério Goulart Júnior
Luiz Toresan

Modalidade

IRSA - Congresso Mundial de Sociologia Rural (01/10/2025 a 20/01/2026)

Área temática

IRSA 11 - BRICS+ and the Global Agri-Food System: Challenges and Prospects

Data de Publicação

06/08/2026

País da Publicação

Brasil

Idioma da Publicação

pt-BR

Página do Trabalho

https://www.even3.com.br/anais/sober-irsa2026/1442126-export-concentration-in-a-multipolar-world--agri-food-lock-in-and-brics-governance-in-southern-brazil

ISBN

978-65-272-2668-0

Palavras-Chave

Regional agri-food governance, trade lock-in, market diversification limits, South-South trade asymmetries

Resumo

This paper examines whether the expansion of BRICS into BRICS+ provides genuine alternatives to commodity-dependent agri-food governance structures or reproduces hierarchical South-South trade patterns on an intensified scale. Taking the State of Santa Catarina as a detailed regional case study spanning pre-BRICS membership (2009) through BRICS+ expansion (2024-2025), this analysis documents how trade reorientation toward BRICS markets, particularly China, has narrowed Santa Catarina's agricultural portfolio and deepened commodity lock-in despite BRICS+ commitments to food sovereignty and alternative institutional development. Empirical evidence reveals a contradictory pattern: Santa Catarina's agribusiness exports grew from approximately USD 5-6 billion (2009) to USD 7.57 billion (2024, constituting 65% of state total exports), yet this growth concentrated in three commodities: pork (USD 1.6B), chicken (USD 2.29B), and soybeans (USD 633M). Simultaneously, Santa Catarina maintains a paradoxical 6 million tonne annual corn deficit requiring imports from neighbourhood states and countries while exporting value-added meat products. This dynamic reveals structural commodity dependence masked by market diversification rhetoric. China's historical market dominance (reaching 25-30% of meat exports in 2022-2023) has declined to 10.96% of total exports (2024) due to trade bans, creating instability that state diversification strategy cannot fully buffer. BRICS+ institutional innovations fail to address this fundamental commodity specialization. Rather, they optimise the circulation of existing commodities without enabling Santa Catarina to escape commodity lock-in mechanisms, including sunk capital in slaughterhouses and processing infrastructure, labour dependence, among others, that favour meat production. The paper argues that Santa Catarina exemplifies how BRICS+ represents a reformed accommodation rather than a genuine alternative paradigm: it creates South-South institutional mechanisms while entrenching regional agricultural specialization, concentrating market risks in commodity price volatility and geopolitical trade restrictions, and marginalizing food sovereignty alternatives. The analysis demonstrates that despite successful market diversification, Santa Catarina remains structurally unable to transform its commodity-export profile.

Título do Evento: 16th World Congress of Rural Sociology and 64th Congress of the Brazilian Society of Rural Economics, Management and Sociology
Cidade do Evento: Porto Alegre
Título dos Anais do Evento: Anais do 64º Congresso da SOBER e XVI Congresso Mundial de Sociologia Rural (IRSA)
Nome da Editora: Even3
Meio de Divulgação: Meio Digital
DOI

Como citar

MONTALVAN, Roberth Andres Villazon; JÚNIOR, Rogério Goulart; TORESAN, Luiz. EXPORT CONCENTRATION IN A MULTIPOLAR WORLD: AGRI-FOOD LOCK-IN AND BRICS+ GOVERNANCE IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL.. In: Anais do 64º Congresso da SOBER e XVI Congresso Mundial de Sociologia Rural (IRSA). Anais...Porto Alegre(RS) UFRGS, 2026. Disponível em: https//www.even3.com.br/anais/sober-irsa2026/1442126-EXPORT-CONCENTRATION-IN-A-MULTIPOLAR-WORLD--AGRI-FOOD-LOCK-IN-AND-BRICS-GOVERNANCE-IN-SOUTHERN-BRAZIL. Acesso em: 22/09/2026